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bf必发彩票可靠吗:Peng Hua Fund: Hong Hongtao: Twenty Years of Fluctuations See Capital Market Changes through Volatility

时间:2018/6/11 19:47:43  作者:  来源:  浏览:0  评论:0
内容摘要:I. Investor Structure Change Brings Changes in Investment ConceptsLooking back at the A-share history of the past 20 years, every important ...

I. Investor Structure Change Brings Changes in Investment Concepts

Looking back at the A-share history of the past 20 years, every important change in investor structure has brought about an important change in the market investment philosophy.

In 1998, when I joined the program in 2003, I felt that the investment concept was confusing and complex at the time and that it was “discrete-headed, and the Zhuanggu was ambitious”. Before 2003, due to the small scale of institutional investors, the A-share market was an era in which the “Zhuanggu” dominated the world. Representatives such as Delong, Zhongtiantian, and Changjiu Biochemistry were typical representatives.

Between 2003 and 2007, institutional investors such as QFII, social security, etc. gradually entered the market, and public funds raised. 2003 was the first year of value investment. On the one hand, in 2003, the most concentrated year of the Zhuanggu avalanche, Century Zhongtian, , Zhenghong Technology, , Changjiu Biochemical and a number of old and new stocks fell; on the other hand, it was also the first year of A-share value investment. The batch QFII formally entered the market in 2003. Social security funds also entered the market in June 2003. The QFII and social security emphasis on the value of the style has an important influence on the A share investment concept. Publicly raised funds also grew rapidly during the 2003-2007 period, becoming the real dominant force in the market. At the end of 2007, there were 58 fund management companies and 346 funds. The size of the fund reached 327.55 billion yuan, which increased by 598% in two years and accounted for more than 28% of the total market value of circulation. The influence of these institutional investors on the gradual exertion of influence, value investment has become a mainstream idea, but also can help companies achieve resource allocation and pricing, which is a very important stage.

However, the change in equity assets from 2007 to 2017 was not particularly large. This is also a regret for the development of public funds, and it is also a loss of part of the pricing power. At present, the ratio of public equity assets to market capitalization is less than 4%.

And from 2007 to 2016, when the public equity funds entered the “stagflation” period, this period was the rapid development of the entire private placement and . At the same time as the peak of the public offering in 2007, it was also the first year of “public gambling”. The earliest group of star fund managers ran around. Representatives were Xiao Hua, Lu Jun, and Shi Bo. It was precisely this wave of early joining. The power of private equity has helped the private equity fund's development.

Data show that during the ten years from 2007 to 2016, the scale of private equity and insurance asset management increased rapidly. Especially after 2013, the absolute return of funds has been growing. Among them, the scale of private equity funds (holding second-tier equity) rose from about 100 billion in 2007 to the current 2.6 trillion, and insurance funds also increased from about 280 billion to 1.8 trillion.

What has changed since 2016? The influence of overseas investors has been continuously strengthened, making the concept of value investment and long-term investment philosophy deeply rooted in the hearts of the people. If QFII is the beginning of foreign investment in 2003, then Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect were opened in 2016 (14 years for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, and 16 years for Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect), and the total amount limit for interconnection and intercommunication in August 2016 was cancelled. Northbound funds began to enter the A-share market on a large scale, and once again in 16/17, the concept of value investing was deeply rooted in the people's minds, and the market pricing power shifted again.

In the past 20 years, it should be said that every major institutional investor's entry has brought about important changes in investment philosophy. The weaker discourse power of retail investors and the strengthening of institutional discourse power should be the trend of the times. Under the background that the proportion of retail investors in the A-share market is still high, the change will be long-winded and long.

Looking back, long-term funds such as MSCI inclusion and pension target funds will enter the market one after another. The growth of long-term funds will continue to precipitate quality chips, and the investment concept of A-shares will become more mature in the future.

How do you view the current market structure? At present, the participation of the market in the main body is diversified, which is beneficial to market stability. There is often a problem in the market: the concept of a retail group is not mature enough, so it brings opportunities to the A-share market. Only in this way can there be a time of market mispricing. If the views are unanimously converging, it is difficult to have arbitrage opportunities. I think that the A-share market is still in the process of maturity and there are still many opportunities. If the market believes in the convergence of investment ideas is also a very dangerous thing, investors now say that they are value investors. In fact, they mix too many value speculations. There is a big difference in the logic and the way of pricing assets. This creates a convergence of investment directions, leading to excessive concentration of chips that will exacerbate market volatility.

Second, the industry changes brought about by the outlet switching

each round of the bull market led the plate has a different, representing leading industries change in different periods.

1994 to 1997: the best appliances sector, consumer era of supply shortages upgrade, from the "three old" to "new three" of change, when Changhong, Chunlan is a good stock;

2006 to 2007: non-Bank financial and periodic product is king, is benefiting from heavy industrialization and urbanization tide of the times;

2012 to 2015: TMT, Internet-based, this round of mobile Internet wave, depending on the valuation increase growth The stocks are sought after;

Since 2016: The revaluation of consumer goods and value leaders has brought about a concentration increase in consumer upgrades and supply-side reforms. In 2018 it entered the competition stage again.

Fund managers must have a market-goal attitude. In 1998, the instructor who took me as an introductor once said that one person in this life is enough for a stock. Never sell Sichuan Changhong , Sichuan Changhong is the best stock is the market consensus. If you go back to 1998 you will not buy a single order Sichuan Changhong? If you believe in returning, you cannot resist the temptation of that atmosphere at that time, because it was a real value investment in that era. And if you cross six years ago, can you buy a -beauty group who was self adjusting at the time? Not necessarily, you will be afraid because you can't see how far the future is. Therefore, it is difficult for you to overcome the times you are in. How to keep up with the development of the train is a realistic choice. Often come to think through thinking, help us find inadequate, increase investment capacity.

Different backgrounds of the economic era have the birth of the leading industries that have been branded with them, and the rise of leading industries often engenders huge investment opportunities. The A-share market is often the best mapping of industrial changes.

From the economic shortages in 1992 and 1993 to the upgrading of department stores, the wave of urbanization in 2005 and the shift to emerging industries from 2012 to 2015, the capital market has expectations, and it has been unable to rise again. There is also a new stage now. There may be a long period of opportunity for many industries during the transition from old kinetic energy to new kinetic energy. This requires us to choose.

To make a comparison of Ubiquitous stocks of “this one hour and one hour”, who is the “Uniguai stocks from 1998 to 2008”? For example Haitong Securities , Street , Chinese ships, and "since 2008," the bull stock is China Fortune , gold card stock , Sunyard other technology categories. Niugu years before and after

, the benchmark consumer companies have banner should be no doubt evergreens. However, other Ushimata shares show typical industrial changes and changes in the characteristics of the business model of listed companies: In the decade of heavy industry, there were more financial real estate and industrial enterprises, and more emphasis was placed on endogenous growth; the next 10 years were TMT and pharmaceuticals. In the world, both endogenous and epigenetic.

In the past two years, I had the privilege of part-time participation in the review of mergers and acquisitions and reorganization. I experienced a period of high-level mergers and acquisitions. There were a total of 104 reorganizations in 2017. This year was close to half and only 25 meetings were held. The passion is weakened. A lot of projects were reviewed, and thinking about extensional expansion is also deepening. When a company can't get a market premium through extension expansion, he has no incentive to do M\u0026A. From this perspective, and now to a new historical stage, the emphasis on mergers and acquisitions to focus on the rational stage of endogenous growth, it is worth thinking about.

Third, through the cycle, some of the important features of A-share market

made a more interesting statistic, I am partial stock funds , common stock, flexible allocation fund criteria for the classification, study fund managers working years duration the relationship between the high and low turnover. To January 1, 2017 as the starting point, as of the previous trading day (May 18, 2018) investigated the relationship between the working years you funds managed by fund managers and fund manager turnover of himself. You can see, the basic trend line is negatively correlated, indicating the working years with the growth of the fund manager, the exchange rate will be gradually reduced.

It is further estimated that fund managers with longer durations and corresponding longer working years also have this feature. The longer the fund manager's management is, the lower the turnover rate is. In the first few years, the turnover rate was significantly higher. Over time, the number of fund managers has grown, and the turnover rate has gradually become lower and stable.

Another perspective is the observation of closed-end fund managers in 2010, which was also the "high first and then low" hands. Maybe the average age of market fund managers is now younger, and there may be unstoppable trades, but also give him the opportunity to try, there is no way to precipitate long-term chips. How chips can precipitate this case? It is unlikely. There are only two expectations: First, waiting for them to grow old, the turnover rate will gradually come down. The second is to encourage him to stay through the assessment. However, the statistical results are surprising. It is difficult for a fund manager to look for more than five years, and it is less than ten years. The current situation has caused a large number of market hotspots to switch. Everyone has become a stack porter and changes hands frequently.

Are A shares suitable for ultra long-term investment? Maybe 3 years is more appropriate.

We have selected all the A-share listed companies' data from 2005 to the end of 2017, analyzed the trend characteristics of the stock price with a recent record high, and used the transaction date at the end of each month as the interception point to determine whether the highest price in the past 30 days is specified. The highest historical price before the date.

Rolling statistics in three-, five-, and ten-year intervals to calculate the percentage of record-breaking events in each three-year/fifteen-year period, excluding the company data with a listing date after the trading day. In the annual, five-year, and ten-year intervals, the share price history is new.

This data is also very interesting. China's capital market has caused quarterly variances due to changes in investor structure and industry changes. The variance of quarterly returns is particularly large. After three months of inspections, the probability of high stock innovation is not high, but put three. The highest probability of innovation of the year is the highest value. This angle is somewhat consistent with the reality. If a bull stock in China can basically rise for three years. Throughout the entire reform process, industry rotation is moving across the country in a state where it touches the stones. This is the case with changes in the industry and changes in priorities. Investment is not the best strategy. At least the data shows that if the investment cycle is defined in three years, the probability of achieving high innovation and excess returns is higher.

Take another look at the performance data of public funds. The public offerings have been criticized by the market for many years. I think that when fund managers are very glorious, they are very proud now, because I think this is a very respectable job. In the long run, our fund managers have relatively good results, but why not give customers a better experience? This is due to complicated reasons such as the governance structure of the fund industry and various aspects of equity culture. Each and every one of the industries has the responsibility to maintain the brand reputation, so that the industry can become bigger and stronger, in order to bring more wealth to investors.

Data show that since 2004, compared with Hushen 300, the public funds have higher returns in more years, and investors can obtain excess returns. It also shows that public fundraising is actually creating value for investors. Moreover, in the current most prestigious private equity fund managers, many people also go out of public funds and continue to serve investors.

In addition, the policy cycle, which cannot be ignored, eliminates arbitrage and original source, and it also deserves our attention, which also has an impact on investment.

With the rapid development of China's capital market, the government is gradually strengthening the supervision of the financial market. In response to the “grabbing of the ball” and “empty of the loopholes” on the market, the new regulatory rules for the original Qingyuan have been continuously introduced to implement strict supervision, continue to focus on cracking down and curbing illegal and irregular behaviors, prevent risks from the source, and eliminate supervision to the maximum extent. Arbitrage space, maintain market order and stability.

Fourth, the market outlook and perspectives

Taking history as a mirror, the industrial changes in the US market have a good reference for current Chinese investment and are worth studying.

The trajectory of a country's journey from rich countries to powerful countries is the same. According to historical proportions of the distribution of GICS industry in the US market, 1, information technology, financial and real estate have sustained growth; 2. raw materials, telecommunication services, do not have long-term growth; 3. core/non-core consumption The proportion of health products is relatively stable.

From a micro perspective, the stock market is a "weighing machine" for high-quality companies. In the US market, 50-- good company in the 1970s is ExxonMobil , General Motors ; 70 - well the company is 90 years McDonald , Coca-Cola ; since the 90s is FAAMG, namely the United States 5 Large-scale technology companies Facebook (FB), APPle (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT) and GOOGLE parent company Alphabet (GOOG).

From a macro perspective, the stock market is the "incubator" of the new economy. From the perspective of industry distribution, the good industry in the 50-70s was industrial \u0026 petroleum; the good industry in the 70-90s was consumption; the good industry in the 90s to date was technology \u0026 emerging consumption.

The ranking of listed companies in the early 90s was the same as the influence of the previously mentioned structure. In the early 1990s, the leading companies in the US stock market were mainly industrial, energy, and traditional consumption. After 2000, the leading US stocks were dominated by technology and finance. Seeing the industrial changes in the U.S. capital market, we can draw the trajectory we can learn.

What can be learned in the domestic market? What are our own advantages? First, a huge population base and wealth effect determine the huge consumption space. The United States has 300 million people, we are 1.3 billion people, and the family with an annual income of 1 million is also ranked second. Second, an interesting data can be seen that China’s original demographic dividend has gradually entered the bonus of engineers, and that China’s graduates of science and engineering are on the rise. These people will also contribute to technological advancement after their studies.

The demographic structure determines the shift of consumer focus. The last wave of baby boom was in 1971, with the highest point at 29.83 million. The second round of climax was 1987, when it was 25.5 million. Since this high point has been lowered, the trend of population aging is irreversible, and it will bring many business opportunities and investment opportunities. The consumption structure of different ages will vary greatly, and investment in this future will not be more biased. The changes in the demographic structure will gradually shift from the peak of housing demand to the peak of consumer services.

Technological innovation is another important investment line.

The past 50 years can be divided into five scientific and technological cycles - mainframe, minicomputer, computer, Internet, and mobile Internet. In fact, every technological advance has spawned a company with a larger market capitalization. In fact, the outbreak is a geometric progression. This trend continues, and investment opportunities are not to be missed. Historically, the creation and demise of wealth are the essence of the new computing product development cycle, and winners of each new cycle will often create more market value than winners of previous cycles.

From the perspective of economic development, in the environment of over-expansion of finance, the gains obtained through the use of leverage arbitrage far exceed those of the entity enterprises, and it is more likely to appear “to break away from reality”. In a relatively stable financial environment (financial de-leverage), there will be more room for industry and innovation will be easier to develop.

Moreover, from the perspective of policy orientation, the “three-going” policy in the past two years has placed more emphasis on the rejection of traditional industries. After these phases have been alleviated, focusing on economic transformation and reform is the main theme of long-term social development. Looking ahead, there are six growth points in China’s new economy, including high-end consumption, innovation and leadership, green and low-carbon, shared economy, modern supply chain and human capital services.

Fifth, the social value and responsibility of institutional investors

The last thing I would like to share with you is the “Social Value of Institutional Investors”. The social value of institutional investors is to conduct asset pricing, give premium companies “premium”, and promote The rational allocation of social resources.

Personally think that institutional investors should play a role in the maintenance of market prices and have to give pricing power to assets. From the previous one-way investigations to the current in-depth exchanges, institutional investors have made in-depth exchanges of strategy, business, and capital from simple one-way analysis or information acceptance to institutional investors and companies. For example, the Foxconn industry's inquiry process was recently attended by everyone. This is also an important exercise. In the future, institutional investors must play a greater role in this process. They must give premium companies a premium and give them more resources. Realize reasonable configuration. Looking further into the future for mutual benefit, institutional investors should have the responsibility to move towards active shareholderism and actively exercise shareholder rights in issues such as shareholders, strategy, and dividends to achieve long-term win-win results with the company.

The second is the social responsibility of institutional investors. Our investment managers should realize that they are burdened with social responsibility and historical mission. The essence of asset management is “valet finance”, especially the investment manager of the managed social security portfolio. Whether it is absolute return or relative income, growth or value, everyone is on the same route and both shoulder the same responsibility. They are all shouldering the responsibility “for ordinary people (75.050, -0.88 , -1.16%) Making money "of social responsibility. What is the historical mission of institutional investors? Under the ever-opening financial environment, China’s institutional investors are not only satisfied with obtaining an investment income, but should also have the right to pricing their own quality assets.

I am also a Social Security Portfolio Manager. Since 2011, I have started to manage social security assets. This allows me to feel the sublimation of my life. We are working hard to make money for social security and pension funds, and we thank the leaders of the Social Security Council for their trust, support and tolerance for our group. The assessment of the extended period is very beneficial to our adherence to our investment philosophy. In particular, it is hoped that other trustees and contributors can learn from the National Council for Social Security, which will really extend the duration of the investment and give the fund managers a longer period of time and tolerance.

Institutional investors have an unshirkable historical mission in the financial development environment. They need to be completed jointly by us. We hope that everyone will work together to contribute to the domestic asset pricing power. These are all improving. We believe that institutional investors will play a greater role in the pricing of quality assets.

It is the goal of the fund manager to make more excess returns to the manager and the client in the future. We should be grateful that this era has given us opportunities and we should use transposing methods to perfect our ideas. We hope that our fund managers can often transpose and go back and think about your judgments at that time. We often look back at our values ??and persistence in our hearts, constantly improve and improve, have responsibilities, have responsibility, and realize our ideals.

Attachment: Mr. Qi Hongtao, Master of Economics, 20 years of securities industry experience. He has been engaged in investment research work in Huaxia Securities, Dalian Securities, Jutian Securities, Jutian fund company (now Morgan Stanley Huaxin Fund Company). He is currently Peng Hua Fund President Assistant, Director of Equity Investment, General Manager of Equity Investment Division 1, Portfolio Manager of Social Security Fund, Member of Social Security and Pension Investment Decision Committee, Member of Equity Investment Decision Committee; also served as the sixth listing of China Securities Regulatory Commission He is a member of the company's Mergers and Acquisitions Restructuring Review Committee, and a permanent expert reviewer of the Securities Times China Listed Companies Value Selection.





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